By Mark D. Brewer
While one might once have thought knocking Britney Spears from the top spot in the headlines impossible, Alaska Governor Sarah Palin has accomplished that feat. Although Spears’ three awards at MTV’s Video Music Awards on Sunday night are garnering a good deal of press coverage, the American media spotlight still shines brightest on Palin, as it has now for over a week. Socially conservative Republicans are extremely pleased (to say the least) with the selection of Palin as the GOP’s nominee for Vice President, and their enthusiasm has provided a jolt to the Republicans’ campaign efforts. Indeed, the campaign of Republican presidential nominee John McCain scrapped plans for Palin to begin campaigning on her own this week, choosing instead to keep her as close to McCain as possible because of the overwhelmingly positive reactions she has been generating in their joint appearances. CNN’s most recent “poll of polls” has Democratic nominee Barack Obama’s lead over McCain down to just one percentage point, the smallest figure since both candidates secured presumptive nominee status. Here in early September, Republicans are suddenly feeling pretty good. I wonder if such feelings will be intact on November 5.
Certainly there is a lot to like about Governor Palin, especially from the perspective of a social conservative. She holds a very pro-life view on abortion, opposing the practice even in cases of rape and incest; is a married mother of five, and chose to carry her youngest child—five-month-old son Trig—to term despite knowing he would be born with Down Syndrome; is a long-time and active member of a church belonging to the Assemblies of God, the largest Pentecostal denomination in the United States; and strongly supports teaching of creationism alongside of evolution and abstinence instead of broader sex education in public schools. Palin is, in short, a social conservative’s dream candidate. Add in the numerous elements of Palin’s appeal to the broader electorate—her reputation as a reformer in notoriously corrupt Alaska (especially Republican) politics, her staunch advocacy for increased drilling for oil and natural gas in a period of high anxiety over energy costs, her rural upbringing and regular participation in activities important in rural settings such as fishing and hunting, her son, Track, who is about to deploy to Iraq, and the charisma and speaking ability she demonstrated in her acceptance speech at the Republican National Convention, to name but a few—and it is easy to see why John McCain chose her as his running mate and also why the overall Republican outlook has brightened since her selection. Certainly the reaction to the selection of Palin has been more positive than negative on the whole. But I remain unconvinced of the wisdom of the choice.
To me, tapping Palin for the number two spot on the ticket signals that the McCain campaign has decided to pursue a Rovian strategy in the 2008 general election campaign—energize the base and maximize their turnout on Election Day. At first glance it might appear difficult to argue with such a decision. After all, wringing every last vote out of the Republican base worked well for George W. Bush in 2000 and especially 2004, and there is no doubt that much of the GOP base was lukewarm at best regarding McCain prior to his selection Palin as his running mate. But I am not so sure that the Rove playbook can work for the Republicans this time around, for three reasons. First, John McCain is not George W. Bush. The social conservative base of the Republican Party recognized and embraced Bush as one of their own. They will never do so with McCain, and while they may indeed love Sarah Palin, McCain’s name is still at the top of the ticket.
Second, the 2008 electorate is likely to look much different than those of 2004 and 2000. Turnout almost certainly will be higher in this election cycle, due at least in part to the large number of new voters that the Obama campaign has been able to register since the Senator from Illinois formally began his campaign. While there are legitimate questions about how many of these new registrants will actually vote on Election Day, certainly some of them will, making it less likely that the previous base will be enough for the Republicans on November 4.
Third, and perhaps most important, I believe this election will be fought and won in the middle rather than as a battle between the bases. Unlike 2004, I think that the candidate who performs best in this amorphous, ill-defined, middle of the electorate—independents, swing-voters, undecideds, call them whatever you choose—will take the oath of office in January 2009. I wonder about Palin’s appeal among these voters. Specifically, I wonder how these voters will react to Palin’s relative inexperience and her youth. In my opinion, McCain was poised to do quite well among these voters, in particular by pointing to his lengthy record of accomplishment in the Senate and especially by raising concerns of Obama’s youth and inexperience. Such a strategy worked well for Hillary Clinton in the Democratic primaries, and was arguably working well enough to keep McCain close in the polls even as the media focused more intensely on Obama. In my judgment, Palin’s nomination significantly reduces the effectiveness of this tactic for the McCain campaign, seriously neutralizing what was perhaps its biggest weapon.
Election Day is still almost two full months away, a lifetime in a presidential campaign. There is much still to come in this race, and any and all of what I have written about could look silly in a short period of time (if it does not appear so already). Many Republicans believe that in Sarah Palin the party has identified its newest rising star. They may well be right. But I do wonder if John McCain might ultimately regret providing Palin a national launching pad at the expense of his presidential hopes in 2008.
Mark D. Brewer is assistant professor of political science at the University of Maine and co-author, with L. Sandy Maisel, of Parties and Elections in America: The Electoral Process, Fifth Edition (2008)
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